The ISA Advisor is a private label macroeconomic outlook report published quarterly by ITR Economics exclusively for ISA Members only.
With the onset of the new year, there are a multitude of signals suggesting cause for optimism moving forward. Recovery in the US Industrial Production quarterly data has already begun, and our dashboard of leading indicators suggests that the annual Production trend will transition to Phase A, Recovery, imminently.
Though several European countries have reinstated shutdown orders (to varying degrees) in response to rising COVID-19 case numbers, US governors are generally prioritizing keeping state economies open. The COVID-19 vaccine may bolster US businesses’ confidence in the bourgeoning economic recovery and incentivize investment in the new year. We also expect a more inflationary environment in 2021 as recovering industrial activity yields higher demand for inputs.