Production to Rise to Replenish Low Inventories, but Elevated Interest Rates Likely to Cool Demand
US Automobile Production Index is an index comprising establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing complete automobiles (i.e., body and chassis or unibody) or (2) manufacturing automobile chassis only.
ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase B of the business cycle. Phase B or “Accelerating Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is rising, and the rate of growth is positive. We denote this phase with green (for go).
US Automobile Production transitioned from phase B to phase C in Q1 2023. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution). In Q1 2024, US Automobile Production will transition into phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).
ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at 2.7%, -4.6% in 2024, and 5.5% in 2025.
