Forecast Changed Due to Historical Data Revision by Source; Production to Be Relatively Flat in 2023
US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production Index is an Index for US establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing aircraft engines and engine parts; (2) developing and making prototypes of aircraft engines and engine parts; (3) aircraft propulsion system conversion (i.e., major modifications to systems); (4) aircraft propulsion systems overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft propulsion system to original design specifications).
ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).
US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production will continue in phase C through Q4 2023 giving way to phase B in Q1 2024. Phase B or “Accelerating Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is rising, and the rate of growth is positive. We denote this phase with green (for go).
ITR Forecasts the annual growth rate for 2022 at 6.1%, 0.6% in 2023, and 13.4% in 2024.
