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US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production Index
(Q3 2023)

Posted on November 15, 2023

Forecast Lowered 3%-4% on Data Revision; Backlogs to Fuel Rise in Annual Production Into Early 2025

US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production Index is an Index for US establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing aircraft engines and engine parts; (2) developing and making prototypes of aircraft engines and engine parts; (3) aircraft propulsion system conversion (i.e., major modifications to systems); (4) aircraft propulsion systems overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft propulsion system to original design specifications).

ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).

US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production will continue in phase C through Q2 2025 giving way to phase D in Q3 2025. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).

ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at 3.3%, 7.2% in 2024, and -1.3% in 2025.

READ THE FULL Q3 2023 REPORT FROM ITR

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