Forecast Revised Due to Data Revision; Expect Decline Into Late 2024 as Industrial Sector Wanes
US Primary Metals Production Index comprises industries in the Primary Metal Manufacturing subsector smelt and/or refine ferrous and nonferrous metals from ore, pig or scrap, using electrometallurgical and other process metallurgical techniques. Establishments in this subsector also manufacture metal alloys and superalloys by introducing other chemical elements to pure metals. The output of smelting and refining, usually in ingot form, is used in rolling, drawing, and extruding operations to make sheet, strip, bar, rod, or wire, and in molten form to make castings and other basic metal products.
ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase D of the business cycles. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).
US Primary Metals Production will continue in phase D through Q2 2024 giving way to phase A in Q3. Phase A or “Recovery” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is rising, but the rate of growth is still negative. We denote this phase with blue (for improving).
ITR Forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at -3.7%, -3.6% in 2024, and 2.9% in 2025.
