Annual Spending Forecast Lifted for 2023, Lowered for 2024; Cycle to Culminate in a 2025 Recession
US Private Nonresidential Construction Index is an index including private construction of the following types: office, commercial, automotive, lodging, dining, retail, warehouse, storage facilities, schools, dormitories, sports facilities, galleries, museums, hospitals, medical buildings, special care facilities, religious buildings, fitness centers, amusement parks, movie theaters, social centers, transportation facilities, power facilities, and manufacturing facilities.
ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase B of the business cycle. Phase B or “Accelerating Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is rising, and the rate of growth is positive. We denote this phase with green (for go).
US Private Nonresidential Construction will continue in phase B through Q2 2023 giving way to phase C in Q3. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).
ITR Forecasts the annual growth rate for 2022 at 7.6%, 6.7% in 2023, and 0.0% in 2024.
