GDP to Be Relatively Flat, Then Decline for a Portion of 2024; 2025 Forecast Adjusted Slightly
US Real Gross Domestic Product is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation’s overall economic activity.
ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).
US Real Gross Domestic Product will continue in phase C through Q4 2023, giving way to phase D in Q1 2024. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).
ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at 0.9%, -0.3% in 2024, and 2.5% in 2025.
