GDP Quarter-to-Quarter Decline Led by Net Exports, Government Spending, While Consumer Sector Rose
US Real Gross Domestic Product is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation’s overall economic activity.
ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).
US Real Gross Domestic Product will continue in phase C through Q1 2023, giving way to phase B in Q2. Phase B or “Accelerated Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is rising, and the growth is positive. We denote this phase with green (for go).
ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2022 at 1.7%, 2.0% in 2023, and 3.2% in 2024.
