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US Real Gross Domestic Product
(Q4 2023)

Posted on January 4, 2024

Forecast Adjusted Due to Data Rebase, Expectation for Two Quarters of Decline in 2024 Remains

US Real Gross Domestic Product is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation’s overall economic activity.

ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).

US Real Gross Domestic Product will continue in phase C through Q1 2024, giving way to phase D in Q2 2024. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).

ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at 1.3%, -0.4% in 2024, and 2.4% in 2025.

READ THE FULL Q4 2023 REPORT FROM ITR

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