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US Industrial Production Index
(Q1 2024)

Posted on April 10, 2024

Production Nearing Phase D; Expect Mild Contraction in 2024, Closer to the Upper Forecast Range

The US Industrial Production Index is an index of total industrial production in the United States; including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).

US Industrial Production will transition to phase D in Q1 2024. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).

ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2024 at -3.6%, 2.0% in 2025, and 1.7% in 2026.

READ THE FULL Q1 2024 REPORT FROM ITR

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