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US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production Index
(Q4 2023)

Posted on January 4, 2024

Aircraft Orders Are Strong but Production Is Constrained; Muted Rise to Last Into Early 2025

US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production Index is an Index for US establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing aircraft engines and engine parts; (2) developing and making prototypes of aircraft engines and engine parts; (3) aircraft propulsion system conversion (i.e., major modifications to systems); (4) aircraft propulsion systems overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft propulsion system to original design specifications).

ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).

US Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production will continue in phase C through Q2 2025 giving way to phase D in Q3 2025. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).

ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at 3.3%, 7.2% in 2024, and -1.3% in 2025.

READ THE FULL Q4 2023 REPORT FROM ITR

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